Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 9682 | 42852 | 308 | 84 | 564 | 682 |
| January 09 2021 | 9720 | 43060 | 308 | 87 | 538 | 720 |
| January 10 2021 | 9789 | 43265 | 310 | 87 | 530 | 725 |
| January 11 2021 | 9809 | 43387 | 311 | 87 | 514 | 720 |
| January 12 2021 | 9856 | 43469 | 312 | 88 | 561 | 738 |
| January 13 2021 | 9921 | 43619 | 315 | 89 | 546 | 739 |
| January 14 2021 | 9981 | 43753 | 315 | 90 | 554 | 722 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.0 | 6.3% | 35 | 0.3% | 51 | 0.44% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 6.9 | 12.6% | 70 | 0.51% | 80 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 11.4 | 24.5% | 136 | 0.65% | 178 | 0.85% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.9 | 12.3% | 68 | 0.5% | 104 | 0.76% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 6.3 | 11.2% | 62 | 0.59% | 71 | 0.68% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 8.1 | 15.2% | 84 | 0.67% | 101 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 5.1 | 10.6% | 59 | 0.51% | 76 | 0.66% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.4 | 7.2% | 40 | 0.38% | 61 | 0.58% |
| All ages | 60 | 50.1 | 100% | 554 | 0.53% | 722 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 6176 | 25499 | 179 | 67 | 362 | 448 |
| January 09 2021 | 6227 | 25555 | 181 | 70 | 388 | 494 |
| January 10 2021 | 6264 | 25622 | 181 | 70 | 362 | 479 |
| January 11 2021 | 6295 | 25658 | 182 | 70 | 372 | 498 |
| January 12 2021 | 6343 | 25700 | 183 | 70 | 420 | 529 |
| January 13 2021 | 6355 | 25787 | 187 | 72 | 383 | 516 |
| January 14 2021 | 6429 | 25852 | 190 | 72 | 425 | 527 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.7 | 6.8% | 29 | 0.37% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 4.4 | 8.5% | 36 | 0.43% | 47 | 0.56% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 7.0 | 16.5% | 70 | 0.98% | 89 | 1.25% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 8.3 | 16.7% | 71 | 0.84% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 40-49 | 15 | 7.1 | 15.1% | 64 | 0.82% | 72 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 6.4 | 13.9% | 59 | 0.61% | 74 | 0.76% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 5.9 | 12.5% | 53 | 0.63% | 66 | 0.79% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.1 | 10.1% | 43 | 0.6% | 62 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 74 | 48.0 | 100% | 425 | 0.66% | 527 | 0.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 4679 | 17092 | 196 | 58 | 275 | 313 |
| January 09 2021 | 4705 | 17124 | 197 | 58 | 270 | 339 |
| January 10 2021 | 4724 | 17167 | 197 | 58 | 252 | 331 |
| January 11 2021 | 4737 | 17185 | 197 | 58 | 230 | 339 |
| January 12 2021 | 4760 | 17199 | 200 | 58 | 247 | 356 |
| January 13 2021 | 4772 | 17246 | 200 | 61 | 238 | 337 |
| January 14 2021 | 4805 | 17313 | 201 | 61 | 256 | 333 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.3 | 5.9% | 15 | 0.28% | 20 | 0.37% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 2.4 | 9.4% | 24 | 0.44% | 33 | 0.61% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.1 | 12.9% | 33 | 0.73% | 43 | 0.95% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 3.7 | 14.1% | 36 | 0.66% | 50 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 4.0 | 16.4% | 42 | 0.84% | 51 | 1.02% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 4.0 | 15.2% | 39 | 0.57% | 56 | 0.83% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.4 | 12.9% | 33 | 0.52% | 40 | 0.63% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 13.3% | 34 | 0.54% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 33 | 25.1 | 100% | 256 | 0.57% | 333 | 0.74% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 10593 | 46291 | 256 | 63 | 684 | 818 |
| January 09 2021 | 10691 | 46395 | 260 | 63 | 697 | 916 |
| January 10 2021 | 10717 | 46480 | 262 | 63 | 592 | 886 |
| January 11 2021 | 10775 | 46568 | 263 | 63 | 617 | 908 |
| January 12 2021 | 10817 | 46739 | 266 | 64 | 657 | 908 |
| January 13 2021 | 10902 | 46893 | 272 | 64 | 673 | 908 |
| January 14 2021 | 10927 | 47025 | 274 | 64 | 620 | 802 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.4 | 5% | 31 | 0.26% | 47 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.3 | 10.5% | 65 | 0.39% | 84 | 0.51% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 11.4 | 22.1% | 137 | 0.64% | 174 | 0.82% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 11.6 | 18.4% | 114 | 0.84% | 136 | 1% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 8.4 | 13.4% | 83 | 0.61% | 114 | 0.84% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 6.0 | 11.1% | 69 | 0.49% | 89 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 6.4 | 9.8% | 61 | 0.43% | 75 | 0.53% |
| 70+ | 1 | 5.0 | 9.7% | 60 | 0.46% | 83 | 0.64% |
| All ages | 25 | 54.6 | 100% | 620 | 0.52% | 802 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 35008 | 297654 | 1047 | 203 | 2218 | 2634 |
| January 09 2021 | 35189 | 298198 | 1052 | 211 | 2233 | 2814 |
| January 10 2021 | 35391 | 298787 | 1055 | 211 | 2078 | 2836 |
| January 11 2021 | 35526 | 299345 | 1058 | 211 | 1987 | 2805 |
| January 12 2021 | 35633 | 299369 | 1061 | 214 | 2094 | 2843 |
| January 13 2021 | 35743 | 299432 | 1068 | 214 | 1936 | 2787 |
| January 14 2021 | 35987 | 300080 | 1072 | 218 | 1974 | 2674 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 11.1 | 5.3% | 104 | 0.17% | 141 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 36 | 24.9 | 12.6% | 249 | 0.35% | 337 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 70 | 44.7 | 27% | 533 | 0.51% | 679 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 28.9 | 16.8% | 332 | 0.43% | 466 | 0.61% |
| 40-49 | 29 | 27.9 | 14.9% | 294 | 0.45% | 390 | 0.59% |
| 50-59 | 37 | 22.3 | 12.1% | 239 | 0.36% | 325 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 12.3 | 6.6% | 130 | 0.24% | 189 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.6 | 4.7% | 93 | 0.19% | 147 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 244 | 180.6 | 100% | 1974 | 0.36% | 2674 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 08 2021 | 502012 | 2390538 | 22206 | 5119 | 27475 | 34113 |
| January 09 2021 | 505058 | 2396106 | 22326 | 5155 | 27766 | 36527 |
| January 10 2021 | 506890 | 2401736 | 22378 | 5157 | 25788 | 36072 |
| January 11 2021 | 508346 | 2405734 | 22434 | 5162 | 25339 | 36193 |
| January 12 2021 | 511136 | 2409580 | 22583 | 5211 | 27051 | 36599 |
| January 13 2021 | 513270 | 2414873 | 22705 | 5248 | 26739 | 35978 |
| January 14 2021 | 515982 | 2421860 | 22804 | 5290 | 28044 | 34880 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 169 | 139.6 | 5.2% | 1467 | 0.23% | 1884 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 295 | 295.3 | 11.8% | 3298 | 0.44% | 4117 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 486 | 447.9 | 17.7% | 4976 | 0.66% | 6124 | 0.81% |
| 30-39 | 376 | 378.0 | 15.5% | 4347 | 0.57% | 5441 | 0.72% |
| 40-49 | 405 | 351.3 | 14.3% | 4021 | 0.58% | 4921 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 400 | 364.0 | 14.8% | 4164 | 0.51% | 5114 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 301 | 270.6 | 11% | 3072 | 0.41% | 3834 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 280 | 245.4 | 9.6% | 2699 | 0.42% | 3445 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 2712 | 2492.0 | 100% | 28044 | 0.48% | 34880 | 0.6% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 58.8 | 85 | 50.1 | 44.4 | 25.7% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81.5 | 48 | 26.7 | 44.4% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73.6 | 25.1 | 20.1 | 36.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67.8 | 50.7 | 81.8 | 54.6 | 56.9 | 29.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.9 | 47.4 | 65.4 | 180.6 | 178.9 | 29.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.9 | 54.4 | 80.9 | 2492 | 2244.7 | 31.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4632"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges